Does Luck Play in to Choosing Stocks?

Does Luck Have Anything to Do With Picking Stocks?

Some people avoid certain types of investments because they compare investing to gambling and don't want to take risks with their money. In the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street Burton Malkiel, the author and Princeton Professor, theorized that "a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts." In other words, he thought picking stocks was all about luck.


When you pick companies and buy their specific stocks, you’re essentially betting on the companies to perform a certain way. Sure you can try and factor in a company’s track record, but past performance certainly doesn’t predict the way a stock will perform in the future. On the other hand, stock analysts have their jobs for a reason. Do you think people who succeed in the stock market are relying on luck?

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